Good news: rates aren’t worse than my last analysis
Bad news: rates aren’t better than my last analysis
What follows are the statistics and visualizations regarding COVID-19 that I find informative, important, or were just interesting to me to create as I learn more about data visualization. There are plenty of other analyses available, and analyses that come from disease experts, which I am not, so I encourage you to read and look at those as well!
The analyses use data last updated on 8/29/2020.
Recent Milestones & Statistics of Note
The number of confirmed cases around the world is greater than 25 million and total deaths now are nearing 850 thousand. The 7-day average of daily cases increased again and peaked at 264 thousand on August 14th. The 7-day average of daily deaths reached a second peak of 5891 on August 13th. The number of active cases worldwide did not yet peak and is now at more than 6.75 million active cases. See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/ for visualizations of this data.
Global Total Cases
Currently the nation with the fewest per capita confirmed cases is Laos at 1 in every 331,459 individuals.
The nation with the most per capita confirmed cases is Qatar at 1 in every 24 individuals.
The global prevalence is 1 in every 309 individuals with a confirmed case of COVID-19, an increase from 1 in 354 on 8/17/2020 and 1 in 544 on 7/17/2020.
There are 24 nations that have not reported a COVID-19 fatality.
Currently the nation with the fewest per capita deaths is Burundi at 1 in every 11,943,595 individuals.
The nation with the most per capita deaths is San Marino at 1 in every 808 individuals.
Globally 1 in every 9,189 individuals have died from COVID-19, an increase from 1 in 10,016 on 8/17/2020 and 1 in 12,908 on 7/17/2020.
1 in every 30 individuals who have contracted COVID-19 have died, a death rate of 3.36%, a decrease from 3.53% on 8/17/2020.
If the current death rate in each nation remains the same, based on the number of currently active cases, i.e. without additional infections, the current global death toll of 845,613 would be expected to increase to 964,108.
For visualizations of the trend in global COVID-19 deaths, the relative proportion of deaths by region, and trends and national and state trends see the Financial Times COVID-19 Tracker: Financial Times COVID-19 Tracker link
Global Active Cases
Currently their are 10 nations without any active cases of COVID-19, a decrease from 15 on 7/17/2020. The most populous nation without any active cases is Macao.
The nation with the most per capita active cases is Luxembourg at 1 in every -982 individuals.
The global prevalence is 1 in every 1,260 individuals with an active case of COVID-19, an increase from 1 in 1,302 on 8/17/2020 and 1 in 1,648 on 7/17/2020.
United States of America Analyses
Recent Milestones & Statistics of Note
In the USA, the number of confirmed cases in the USA has reached 6.1 million and the total number of deaths exceeds 185 thousand. The second peak of 7-day average daily cases occurred on July 25th at 69 thousand cases and has declined to 43 thousand, 10k more than the first peak in April. The second peak of 7-day average number of deaths occurred on August 4th at 1,177 cases and is currently at 1,000. The number of active cases has not peaked. Currently there are 2.53 million active cases.
While the trends from the last edition are largely the same, I’m curious to see if there will be a change from this edition to the next as some students return to school.
In the USA 1 in every 54 people has had a confirmed case of COVID-19, 1 in every 1,773 individuals have died, and 1 in every 130 has an active case. These are changes from 1 in 59, 1 in 1,910, and 1 in 133 respectively on 8/17/2020. The USA in ranked in position 9 for per capita cases, position 11 for per capita deaths, and position 4 for per capita active cases. These ranks were 8th, 10th, and 2nd respectively on 8/17/2020.
USA Total Cases
Currently the state with the fewest per capita confirmed cases is Vermont at 1 in every 389 individuals.
The state with the most per capita confirmed cases is Louisiana at 1 in every 32.
Currently the state with the fewest per capita deaths is Hawaii at 1 in every 22,837 individuals.
The state with the most per capita deaths is New Jersey at 1 in every 554 individuals.
In the USA 1 in every 33 individuals who have contracted COVID-19 have died, a death rate of 3.05% (3.77% on 7/17/2020). If the current death rate remains the same, then based on the number of currently active cases, i.e. without additional infections, the current national death toll of 186,825 would be expected to increase to 264,429.
USA Active Cases
Currently the state with the fewest per capita active cases is New Hampshire at 1 in every 5,596 individuals, a change from Vermont at 1 in 4,952 on 8/17/2020 and Hawaii at 1 in 4,467 on 7/17/2020.
The state with the most per capita active cases is Florida at 1 in every 40 individuals (1 in 42 on 8/17/2020 and 1 in 60 on 7/17/2020).
The following animations display the progression of COVID-19 in New England at the county level.
7-Day Running Average of New Cases
New Cases Over the Past 2 Weeks
Seven Day Running Average of New Deaths
New Deaths Over the Past 2 Weeks
Local Exposure Risk
There are also a number of resources available that are tracking how well COVID-19 is being controlled and the current status at a more local level. Two examples are CovidActNow and The Path to Zero. I check Covid Act Now like I check the weather. Red is kind of like going out into a class 5 hurricane, Orange a tropical storm, Yellow a thunderstorm, and Green some rain. Regardless probably good to have your umbrella.
Status of Cases in the North versus the South
One question I’ve become curious about is the status of cases in the North versus the South. I defined states in the north as those with major population centers north of D.C. and Kansas City, and those with population centers south of those cities as southern states.
Whether a state is categorized as northern or southern is undoubtedly a very poor proxy for the percentage of time people spend indoors, and the measures taken to reduce COVID-19 spread. We do see differences between the regions, and the difference has continued to grow over the course of the summer.
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Global, National and State Data
This is my go to site for the raw data on current COVID-19 status at the global and state level
Our World in Data
I don’t go here as often, but this site has the most in depth analysis and includes interactive and customizable visualizations
Financial Times Global Deaths Tracking & Financial Times Trends
Good visualization for trends through time and comparing regions, nations, and states
Daily State and County Data
USAfacts My go to site for daily count data
New Hampshire Data NHPR COVID-19 data tracking My go to site for NH data